Trump Heads to NATO Summit With Alliance on Edge Over Spending, Loyalty
ANKARA, Turkey — President Donald Trump is set to arrive in Turkey on Tuesday for a summit meeting with NATO leaders who are worried that his resentment over their military spending and commitment to U.S.-led priorities will fracture the 77-year-old alliance.
The gathering comes at a precarious moment for the transatlantic partnership. Trump has spent weeks telegraphing his frustration with European allies, particularly over their refusal to back the U.S. military campaign against Iran—a dispute that has exposed deep divisions within NATO and raised fresh questions about the alliance’s cohesion.
For European leaders, the stakes could hardly be higher. Trump has repeatedly suggested the United States might reconsider its commitment to NATO, and he has reportedly mused about cutting American troop levels in Europe by as much as a third to send a message. Those threats have sent shivers through allied capitals, where dependence on U.S. military protection remains the bedrock of national security planning.
Spending Promises Meet Reality Check
At last year’s NATO summit, Trump secured a major victory: member nations agreed to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035—a target that far exceeds the previous 2% benchmark. At the time, the agreement was hailed as a diplomatic triumph for the president, who had made “burden-sharing” the centerpiece of his NATO agenda.
But this week in Ankara, Trump’s mission is enforcement. And enforcement, by all indications, is going to be messy.
European allies struggling with inflation, energy costs, and domestic political pressures have made only incremental progress toward the 5% goal. U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matt Whitaker has made clear the administration’s position: “President Trump fully expects that all allies will step up immediately and get on the path to 5% and do it with urgency.”
Whether European leaders can meet that expectation—and whether Trump will accept anything less—remains the central question hanging over the summit.
The Iran Factor
Compounding the spending dispute is a deepening rift over Iran.
When the U.S. launched a military campaign against Iran in coordination with Israel, European allies were neither consulted nor supportive. The decision left NATO partners publicly exposed and privately furious, reigniting long-simmering frustrations about Washington’s unilateralism.
Trump, for his part, has framed the European reluctance as a betrayal. In his view, allies who benefit from American security guarantees should be prepared to back U.S. foreign policy objectives—even when those objectives carry significant risk.
The shift in Trump’s demands—from spending to what he calls “loyalty” —has made the alliance’s predicament even more complicated. It’s no longer just about writing checks; it’s about political alignment. And that’s a harder ask for many European leaders whose domestic constituencies are deeply skeptical of American military adventures in the Middle East.
What Trump Wants
Behind the scenes, the president’s objectives are becoming clearer.
First, he wants concrete commitments—not vague promises—on defense spending increases. NATO defense spending requirements for member nations have been a consistent theme of Trump’s foreign policy, and he sees the 5% target as a benchmark of seriousness.
Second, he wants European allies to step up in ways that reduce the burden on American taxpayers. That means not just spending more, but spending smarter—on capabilities that complement U.S. military assets rather than duplicating them.
Third, and perhaps most significantly, he wants recognition. Trump has long felt that European leaders take U.S. protection for granted while criticizing American policies. The Iran episode appears to have hardened that conviction.
Europe’s Dilemma
For NATO’s European members, the summit presents an unenviable choice.
Meeting Trump’s defense spending demands would require painful budget decisions at a time when many economies are struggling. Germany, France, and the UK all face significant fiscal pressures, and defense spending is rarely a popular priority with voters.
But failing to meet those demands carries its own risks. A U.S. withdrawal from NATO—or even a significant drawdown of American forces in Europe—would fundamentally alter the continent’s security landscape. European leaders understand that their defense capabilities, even after years of increases, remain heavily dependent on U.S. military infrastructure, intelligence, and nuclear deterrence.
NATO’s Existential Question
The Ankara summit is unfolding against a backdrop of broader uncertainty about the alliance’s future.
Trump has a long history of skepticism toward NATO, having called it “obsolete” during his first term and frequently complaining that the U.S. pays too much while allies pay too little. French President Emmanuel Macron famously warned that the alliance was suffering from “brain death”—a diagnosis that now seems prescient.
NATO’s 77-year-old alliance faces its most serious test since the end of the Cold War. The question is no longer whether the alliance can adapt to new threats—it’s whether it can survive the tensions within its own ranks.
What to Watch
As the summit gets underway, several key dynamics bear watching:
One-on-one meetings: Trump’s bilateral sessions with leaders like Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and French President Emmanuel Macron will reveal much about the state of play. These private conversations often matter more than the formal sessions.
The communiqué: The language of the final summit declaration will be carefully parsed for signs of compromise or continued division. Any watering down of the 5% commitment would be read as a defeat for Trump.
Troop announcements: Trump has been rumored to be considering troop cuts in Europe. Any announcement on this front—whether a reduction or a commitment to maintain current levels—will send a powerful signal about U.S. intentions.
The Bottom Line
For all the drama and tension, both sides have powerful incentives to find common ground.
Europe needs the U.S. security umbrella. And Trump, for all his criticism, has shown that he values the leverage that NATO membership provides. The alliance may be frayed, but neither side appears ready to walk away entirely.
Still, the Ankara summit will be a stress test—one that could determine whether NATO emerges stronger or continues its slow unraveling.
As one European diplomat put it privately: “We’ve been here before with Trump. But this time feels different. The stakes are higher, and the patience is running thin on both sides.”
